How To Sell Your Product
Thursday, January 31st, 2008Or Viral Marketing vs Joe Sixpack
Guy Kawasaki wrote in his blog recently (blog.guykawasaki.com) a post titled “ Forget the A List After All” which actually references another blog post called ” Is the Tipping Point Toast” from Fast Company Magazine. Essentially they refute “The Tipping Point” through some research that says “Influencers” actually have very little impact on a trend and mass marketing is the most effective means to market an item, depending on whether society is ready for a trend. I think the answer really is somewhere in the middle. Like many quoted in the article, I find it hard to believe that someone others wish to emulate and have a lot of connections (either personally or through the media) would have the same impact as joe blow in suburbia. If that were the case, I don’t think there would be the success of the whole paparazzi / people magazine culture where everyone wants to see what these stars are wearing.
If we take the old model with influencers and just assume they have more connections (we aren’t even talking influence here, but the number of connections) and do your typical 2 friends tell 2 friends progression, with the exception of the influencer (I put 100 but I think in the case of many, the influencers would reach many more people), you get the following table (courtesy of Open Office). Of course in this case, this is just getting the word out (in other words, before the trend hits)
| Time Period | Number without Influencer | Number with Influencer | % Increase |
| 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| 4 | 16 | 800 | 5000 |
| 5 | 32 | 1600 | 5000 |
| 6 | 64 | 3200 | 5000 |
| 7 | 128 | 6400 | 5000 |
| 8 | 256 | 12800 | 5000 |
| 9 | 512 | 25600 | 5000 |
| 10 | 1024 | 51200 | 5000 |
| 11 | 2048 | 102400 | 5000 |
Side Notes: I found the article interesting regarding Malcom Gladwell’s response. He respects the work even if it is in opposition to his work, stating that the answer is likely somewhere in between and he likened it to his disagreements with Mr Levitt (Freakanomics) on the reduction in Crime (Broken Windows theory vs increased abortions). It was interesting as in a short comment I had put in a book review on Goodreads.com, I noted that Gladwell Blurbed Levitt’s book, but the book disagreed with Gladwell’s use of the Broken Windows theory). Originally I was disappointed in both books (The Tipping Point and Freakanomics) as they seem to have answers that are too neat. In here Gladwell almost recognizes that., which tends to make me like him more. I guess for books to sell (or magazines in the case of Fast Company), they need to be conclusive, even if the real answers are not so pat.
Of course I found this post through an influential blogger and technologist (I saw him speak a while back on “The Art of the Start”) so that is a little ironic.
